I’ve been reading a lot about $AAPL closing below it’s 50day, coupled with a NFP miss tomorrow will spell the end of us all. I disagree, in fact here’s how I feel it playing out (take it for what it’s worth(which with predictions means nothing)) :
We miss NFP tomorrow at 8:30AM EST. Let’s say 108k (vs 165k estimate). We tank and ES is at 1368-71 by 11AM. By next week, rumors of QE3 will set GLD and ES on the course to new highs for the year. By the end of next week, you’ll have $1700 gold, 1420 ES, and a looming Facebook IPO which should have the market on the front page for a while.
Here’s the numbers to watch:
- Average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.2%
- The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 8.2%
- Weekly hours of week are expected to stay flat at 34.5
- NFP expected to add 165k
Don’t trade this prediction. That would be stupid. It would just be gambling.
(I will be scaling in under 78, but not because of this prediction)